DECISION SUPPORT

Agent-based Simulation of Geo-Political Conflict

The intelligence analysis task of anticipating crises and providing decision makers with reasonable (supportable, explainable) possible futures is extremely difficult. To perform this task, a team of analysts must consider the political, economic, and military aspects of national governments and non-governmental organizations. This paper describes an agent-based simulation framework, the Advanced Global Intelligence and Leadership Experiment (AGILE), for building executable models for conducting regional analysis. AGILE is a full-featured simulation framework that enables the specification of simulation parameters, models and agents, lets the user defi ne and run simulations under varying conditions, and enables post-run analysis of the results. In this paper, we describe the system implementation, and some examples of its use in a pseudo-operational setting.

 

Reference:

Taylor, G., Frederiksen, R., Vane, R. Waltz, E. (2004). ”Agent-based Simulation of Geo-Political Conflict.” In Proceedings of Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence, San Jose, CA, July 2004.

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